NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS
ACROSS THE AMERICAS
A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis
By Tania Miranda
Environment & Climate Change Program
Foreword by
Richard Kiy
President & CEO
Institute of the Americas
Later this year, world leaders from 197 nations will convene in Glasgow for the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP-26) with the goal of reaching consensus on the collective actions necessary to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, a key focus of COP-26 will be reaching agreement on a pathway towards achieving global net zero emissions by mid-century while limiting global temperature increases to within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This consensus will also be necessary to take the necessary steps as well as securing the required funding to help developing countries — including many across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) — to not only protect and restore vital eco-systems but also make their communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change. Here, developed countries agreed six years ago to provide at least USD$100 billion in climate financing per year by 2020 to bolster the global south’s climate resiliency. Yet, to date, these pledges have fallen short.
At COP-26, delegates will also be working to promote a framework for reporting and more transparent monitoring of their country’s respective Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as well as on the rulebook for Article 6 of the Agreement, which allows countries to reduce emissions using international carbon markets.
The challenges facing many developing and emerging market countries — particularly those in LAC — to deliver on their stated NDCs will be daunting amidst the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic that has caused the worst economic crisis in modern history. For countries such as Argentina, Mexico and Brazil their respective economic recoveries have been hobbled; putting additional fiscal stress on an already weakened public sector unable to adequately deliver critical social services at a time of concurrent climate change impacts that each nation faces.
In an effort to better assess progress made to date by countries across the Americas in delivering on their climate commitments, the Institute of the Americas (IOA) has undertaken this policy white paper entitled, Nationally Determined Contributions Across the Americas: A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis. Authored by Tania Miranda, IOA’s Director of Policy & Stakeholder Engagement for our Environment & Climate Change Program, the white paper provides a timely snapshot of progress made, while also highlighting the serious funding gaps that remain if LAC countries are going to deliver on their previously agreed upon climate pledges.
Through her analysis and development of country-specific scorecards for 16 countries in the Americas, that represent 90% of the hemisphere’s combined population and 98% of its collective GDP, Ms. Miranda highlights some of the regional challenges ahead, including: the growing reliance by some Latin American and Caribbean countries on fossil fuels and the growing risks of the energy transition; and the impacts of climate induced drought on countries, like Brazil and Mexico, dependent on hydro-electric power amidst rising energy demand. Most importantly, Ms. Miranda highlights the critical need for developed countries and international financial institutions to step up their game to help LAC countries meet their NDCs. Clearly, LAC countries cannot deliver on its commitments alone.
In the end, LAC only represents about 7% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, South America alone accounts for nearly 35% of the world’s total terrestrial carbon stock. So, the region’s life sustaining eco-systems are absolutely critical for the survival of humankind.
As Lester Brown concludes, “the question we face is not what we need to do, because that seems rather clear…the challenge is how to do it in the time available.”
Acknowledgements
Thank you to the entire staff of the Institute of the Americas for a gigantic team effort, including data analyst intern Alberto Coppola for his analytical support that has been invaluable, and Richard Kiy, the Institute’s President & CEO, for his numerous reviews and guidance.
Likewise, thanks to Keith Nurse, President of the Sir Arthur Community College in St. Lucia and Andre Charles, Research Officer in Advancement at the same institution, for their research and on-the-ground input regarding the advancements and implementation of NDCs in Caribbean Island Nations.
Lastly, I want to express my sincere gratitude to Leonardo Beltrán, IOA’s non-resident fellow and, and Thomas Singh, Director of the GREEN Institute at the University of Guyana, for your detailed and invaluable feedback on this white paper.
Executive Summary
The executive summary of our report highlights the most important trends across the updated international climate pledges of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the challenges and opportunities ahead in this extremely biodiverse region.
Climate change has taken center stage across the globe as the final countdown to the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland begins. The highly anticipated COP26 meeting gained greater spotlight upon the release of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), highlighting the unequivocal evidence of human-induced global warming and its direct impact on increasing extreme weather events’ frequency and intensity.
The impacts of climate change and the urgency to act have not gone unnoticed in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Argentina and other LAC nations hosted a regional climate summit on September 8, 2021, in an effort to create a unified front for the upcoming COP26. Among the key issues addressed was the one on how to finance the Paris Agreement-related Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) assumed by countries, and particularly the role international financial institutions could and should be taking, as well as areas in which regional cooperation could help advance common goals—such as clean electricity generation and coastal resilience.
Many countries in the region have ambitious climate commitments for 2030 and 2050 and are making progress in setting ad hoc policy frameworks to achieve them. What is largely missing is the required funding to implement the NDCs. The gap in required funding among LAC nations is in the order of billions of dollars a year and will prove difficult to meet without outside assistance, particularly in light of the COVID-19 related economic crisis impacting the region—the worst in a generation.
With the goal of facilitating dialogue on the need for increased leadership and funding in support of climate commitments across the Americas, the Institute of the Americas’ white paper provides a snapshot of the NDCs, with emphasis on 16 countries: Argentina, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United States. Many of these NDCs have been updated. Collectively, the countries profiled in this white paper represent 90% of the Hemisphere’s total population and 98% of its combined GDP.
We examine, through country-specific scorecards, different relevant commitment components including adaptation—which is extremely relevant for a region that is at high risk of climate disasters. More than 27% of LAC’s population lives in coastal areas, and 6–8% lives in areas that are at high or very high risk of being affected by coastal hazards and sea-level rise.
The report also assesses progress made with the incorporation of climate pledges into national legislation. Without institutional and legislative efforts, NDCs are just empty promises. In addition, the alignment of COVID-19 recovery packages with countries’ climate pledges is explored, as this represents an opportunity to build back greener, yet it is an opportunity that has largely been ignored by many nations in the Americas aside from a few, such as Canada, Brazil and Colombia.
Finally, we analyze the percentage of commitments that are dependent on international assistance. Only five of the LAC countries we reviewed have made 100% of their pledges unconditional. For a region engulfed in debt, where many of its productive sectors have been endangered by the COVID-19 economic standstill, pinpointing the funding sources for NDC implementation is of the utmost importance.
This conditionality of NDCs also means that the burden of their pledges will rely heavily on the G-7 countries and the private sector. In this regard, the United States and Canada, the two most developed economies in the Americas, have recently made new pledges to help address that finance gap. Yet while this pledged direct foreign assistance (DFA) is a useful start, the amount proves completely inadequate in the context of the total needs in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Beyond addressing the funding gaps, our white paper outlines the need to leverage nature and ecosystems, adapt successful models to attract investment into renewables such as energy auctions, and make use of innovative finance mechanisms to expand access to capital. Doing so will require developing countries to push through institutional reforms to promote transparency and the rule of law in order to de-risk investments.
Countries will also need to make significant efforts to decarbonize their own finances to garner support from international finance institutions and climate funds. The trend away from fossil fuels and how ESG standards are shaping capital flows also bears noting.
Through our analysis, we note the extent of potential limitations. Energy, agriculture, and land-use (including deforestation) are the three largest sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in LAC – representing 88% of emissions – and any effort to decarbonize will have to concentrate on these areas. But, as we highlight in this paper, there are notable opportunities to further climate action, many of which can be considered so-called low-hanging fruit. Specifically, efforts targeting renewable energy systems, sustainable fuels and supply chains; agricultural practices; and nature – and ecosystem – based solutions can have important impacts.
The region alone holds over a quarter of the world’s forest cover and almost half of the remaining tropical forests, yet the fast overall ecosystem degradation calls for action now. The rate of tree loss in the entire Amazonian basin since the 2000 is of about 8 percent. Likewise, LAC holds over 25% of the global mangrove cover, yet 20% of that has been lost between 2001 and 2018. Without adequate financial incentives, this vital carbon sinks could be lost forever.
Overall, our work aims to further shape and inform the climate debate. The regional scorecard is a great tool to help focus on where to allocate finite resources and the most critical areas of near-term attention needed from policymakers and government officials.
This will be particularly useful in the final countdown to Glasgow and perhaps also to spur an LAC unified message, specifically with regards to increased funding for the region.
Executive Summary
The executive summary of our report highlights the most important trends across the updated international climate pledges of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the challenges and opportunities ahead in this extremely biodiverse region.
main report
Nationally Determined Contributions Across the Americas:
A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis
In an effort to better assess progress achieved by countries across the Americas towards delivering on their international climate pledges, and understand the main challenges ahead, in anticipation of the forthcoming United Nation’s Climate Change Conference of the Parties 26 (COP26), the IOA has issued the report Nationally Determined Contributions Across the Americas: A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis.
appendix a
NDC
Scorecards
Through country-level scorecards of 16 nations across the Americas, that collectively represent over 90% of the population and 98% of the region’s GDP, our report made an assessment of seven distinct components related to each country’s Paris-related commitments – six years after the Agreement was signed.
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Argentina
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Barbados
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Brazil
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Canada
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Chile
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Colombia
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Costa Rica
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Dom. Republic
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Ecuador
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Guyana
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Haiti
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Jamaica
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Mexico
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Peru
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Trinidad & Tobago
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United States
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HEMISPHERIC SCORECARD #1
HEMISPHERIC SCORECARD #2
appendix B
Hemispheric Climate Hot Spots Case Studies
Greenland, Alaska and Canada: Loss of Permafrost and Sea-Level Rise
Read more
Mexico (Valle Central): Severe Droughts & Climate Migration
Read more
Brazil’s Amazonian Rainforest: Shift from a Carbon Sink to a Net Carbon Emitter
Read more
(By Andre Charles)
Read more
NDC Scorecards Methodology Notes and Country-Specific Sources
Methodology & Notes
- Ambition of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets is compared with own country’s previously submitted NDCs. Adaptation targets are compared with own country’s previously submitted NDCs.
- For those countries that have not submitted an updated NDC at the time of writing, the original version of the NDC was used for the assessment of the rest of the scorecard’s categories. However, for the first two questions regarding ambition of emissions reduction and adaptation targets, the answers were deemed as undetermined.
- For those countries in which information and data was not sufficiently available as to make an informed assessment, the answered was deemed as undetermined.
- The percentage of total GHG emission reduction targets that depends on international finance refers to that proportion, out of the total GHG emission reduction target (unconditional + conditional), that is dependent upon external sources of assistance.
- Canada and the U.S., as developed nations, are 100% unconditional.
- Ecuador’s targets are set for 2025 as opposed to 2030, like the rest of the countries.
- Brazil did not state a conditional GHG emission reduction target per se, however, it does call for receiving US$10 billion a year from 2021 on to address climate change-related challenges, including the conservation of native vegetation, in particular the rainforest. In that sense, its GHG emission reduction target is unconditional. Its 2050 net-zero commitment is also contingent upon external funding.
- Guyana’s unconditional targets are not defined in terms of GHG emissions. Conditional commitments, on the other hand, include: an effort to develop a 100% renewable energy power supply by 2025, and the reduction of 48.7 MtCO2e annually, from deforestation and forest degradation. In that sense, its GHG emission reduction target was deemed 100% conditional.
- Color coding:
- Green: 100% unconditional.
- Orange: 1-50% conditional.
- Red: 51-100% conditional.
- Net-Zero Commitment category color coding:
- Green for countries that have stated a target year.
- Red: no timeline established.
- The COVID-19 recovery measures alignment with NDC pledges of LAC countries was based on information from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Covid-19 Recovery Tracker for Latin America and the Caribbean, and from the Global Recovery Observatory of Oxford University for Canada and the United States (up to the time of writing).
- Color coding:
- Green: any country that has spent anything above 50% of its total COVID-19 recovery spending on green measures.
- Orange: any country that has dedicated anything between 1% and 49% of its total COVID-19 recovery spending on green measures.
- Red: any country that has dedicated less than 1% of its total COVID-19 recovery spending on green measures.
- Color coding:
Argentina
| NDC ambition: | https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx |
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs/country/ARG/overview?document=second_ndc |
| Track to meet pledges: | https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/ |
| National legislation: | |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | ttps://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Barbados
| NDC ambition: | https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx |
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
|
| National legislation: |
https://sdg.iisd.org/news/75-leaders-announce-new-commitments-during-climate-ambition-summit/ |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
| NDC ambition: | https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/amanda-maxwell/latin-americas-2020-climate-leaders-and-laggards |
| Adaptation: | https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx |
| National legislation: | https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs/country/COL?document=revised_first_ndc
|
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
| NDC ambition: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx https://ndcpartnership.org/news/ecuador-expands-ndc-implementation
|
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
|
| Track to meet pledges: |
https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs/country/ECU?document=first_ndc
|
| National legislation: |
https://www.elcomercio.com/tendencias/ecuador-plan-cumplir-acuerdo-paris.html
|
| Covid-19 recovery measures: |
https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/
|
Guyana
| NDC ambition: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/guync2.pdf
|
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
|
| National legislation: |
https://observatorioplanificacion.cepal.org/sites/default/files/ |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Haiti
| NDC ambition: | |
| Adaptation: | |
| National legislation: |
https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/HTI?sector=tourism#ndc-content-overview https://theconversation.com/in-haiti-climate-aid-comes-with-strings-attached-108652 |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Jamaica
| NDC ambition: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx https://ndcpartnership.org/news/grounded-and-credible-jamaica-banks-greener-future-2020-ndc |
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
|
| National legislation: |
https://www.reuters.com/article/climate-change-jamaica-politics-idINL8N2IN25T |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: | https://recuperacionverde.com/en/tracker/ |
Mexico
Peru
| NDC ambition: | |
| Adaptation: |
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx
|
| Track to meet pledges: |
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/peru/
|
| National legislation: |
https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs/country/PER?document=revised_first_ndc https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/peru/current-policy-projections/ |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: |
Trinidad and Tobago
| NDC ambition: | |
| Adaptation: | |
| National legislation: | |
| Covid-19 recovery measures: |
United States
Interactive Maps
To visualize some key, relevant statistics of the Americas, as part of our analysis, the reader can access interactive grids and maps of the hemisphere to look at GHG emissions, forest cover, and GDP in the following links
America’s Interactive Map:
GHG Emissions, Forest Cover and GDP
Outreach Materials
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Institute of Americas report highlights climate challenges faced across the Americas
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Nationally Determined Contributions Across the Americas: A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis
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CLIMATE IMPACTS CASE STUDIES
Greenland, Alaska and Canada: Loss of Permafrost and Sea-Level Rise
The Arctic covers a good portion of North America including Greenland, Alaska and Canada. Although Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, it is geologically speaking part of the North American continent and so is included in this survey.
While there is evidence of warmer temperatures around the world, both at land and at sea, we now know that the Arctic region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the rate of warming is faster than has been the case over the past 3 million years. As such, it remains an important part of the climate change conversation for the Americas.
Permafrost
Permafrost is Arctic soil that stays frozen year-round and stores about twice the amount of carbon than is currently in the atmosphere. This iced-soil acts like a freezer, conserving organisms and slowing the decomposition of dead plants, animals, and microbes. Although permafrost has served as a carbon sink for millions of years, as Arctic ice warms with rising global temperatures and permafrost soil thaws, it releases the stored C02 and methane (CH4)—thus contributing more to climate change and potentially converting this natural carbon sink into a carbon emitter.3
Sea Level Rise
The rate at which sea levels have risen globally from the 20th century to the period between 2006-2015, has more than doubled from 1.4 mm per year to 3.6 mm per year. See Figure 1 for a timeline of sea level rise from 1900 to 2018.
Figure 1: Sea Level Rise since 1900. Pre-1940, glaciers and Greenland meltwater dominated the rise. Dam projects slowed the rise in the 1970s. Now, ice-sheet and glacier melt, plus thermal expansion, dominate the rise. Tide-gauge data shown in blue; satellite data in orange.
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
There are two key factors behind Greenland’s melting, which in turn contributes to sea-level rise. The first is warmer global temperatures that melt its surface, mainly in the summer months, causing water to pool and run downhill into the ocean. Plus, this has a positive feedback effect, as the melting of white snowfall exposes darker, bare ice caps that naturally absorb more heat (the whiter snow is better at reflecting sunlight), thus warming even further and triggering more snow melting. The second factor is that rising ocean temperatures destabilize glacier edges from Greenland’s coasts, and as they break up, they flow faster into the surrounding seas.
Similar to permafrost, scientists warn that this could plunge the Greenland ice-sheet into an irreversible feedback loop and that a portion may already be nearing a “tipping point” that would make its melting state irreversible in the short term. A recent study published in the Geophysical Research Letters Journal in January 2021 found that the threshold for an irreversible melting of the Greenland ice-sheet could happen at merely 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels.
Importantly, Greenland’s ice-sheet—the world’s second largest after the Antarctic ice-sheet—is estimated to contain enough volume of water to raise the average global sea level by more than six meters if it were to melt completely. Greenland’s ice-sheet currently contributes about 0.8 millimeters of water to global sea level rise each year and the rate at which it melts is accelerating. An article in the journal Nature8 published in 2020 found that “the loss of ice in Greenland lurched forward again last year, breaking the previous record by 15%”and that its ice-sheet is melting up to seven times faster than in 1990.9 If this melting trajectory continues, about 25 million more people will be displaced by floods each year by the end of this century. 10
3 NOAA’s Arctic Report Card for 2019 found that the Arctic’s permafrost region has already started to lose more carbon than it captures, releasing net 300 to 600 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere yearly. That is more than five times the emissions all of New York City generates in a single year.
4 The GHGs released from thawing permafrost will contribute to global temperatures increasing, which will, in turn, lead to more permafrost thawing, thus creating a self-reinforcing, unstoppable feedback loop.
5 According to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Northern Hemisphere has lost about 10% of frozen ground since the early XX century.
7 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020GL090471
8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0010-1
9 According to a calculation by Danish climate scientist Martin Stendel, only the 2019 Greenland’s melted sea-ice would be enough to cover the UK with about 2.5 meters of water.
10 In addition, there is the thermal expansion factor that also contributes to sea-level rise, because water expands as it gets warmer due to rising global temperatures.
CLIMATE IMPACTS CASE STUDIES
Mexico (Valle Central 12 ):
Severe Droughts & Climate Migration
At the time of writing, 84 percent of Mexico’s territory is suffering from drought conditions of different intensities. Its geographical location, and thus its climate, make the country extremely vulnerable to droughts, as well as periods of high rainfall. Surviving the dry months depends largely on how much water can be accumulated during the wet season. In 2020, the rainy months did not bring enough water to fill the country’s dams, and now, in 2021, more than half are at less than 50 percent capacity. Furthermore, in northern and central Mexico, many are at less than 25 percent capacity.
Rainfall patterns, and thus the duration and intensity of droughts in Mexico, depend mostly on complex atmospheric and climatic phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña. In simple terms, La Niña occurs when the surface waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean cool, and there is a lack of rainfall on the country’s landmass. On the other hand, El Niño occurs when the warmer waters of the western Pacific Ocean move towards the other side of the Pacific, warming the surface temperatures on the coasts of Central America, resulting in evaporation, rains and hurricanes.
This natural climatic system is now affected by warmer global temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans that have led to changes, such as stronger and more prolonged droughts. Furthermore, even though droughts have always occurred, anthropogenic activity (such as deforestation and destruction of wetlands) have all reduced the ecosystems’ capacity for water retention, making the water shortage more acute in certain areas.
The severity of Mexico’s current drought situation has, according to economists, led to inflationary pressures that forced Mexico’s Central Bank to increase interest rates in June of 2021. This goes to show the widespread economic consequences of climate change that are already affecting countries, and underscores the need for authorities—including regulatory bodies and Central Banks—to assess the long-term effects of a warming climate and to factor it into their stress and economic modeling.
Consequences for Agriculture and Food Security
More frequent and longer duration droughts are forcing farmers in Mexico’s Central Valley to abandon growing corn, which has been cultivated there for thousands of years, in favor of alternatives that require less water, such as pistachio and cactus. Corn crops in some areas of the country, such as Tehuacán, according to experts, have seen a decrease in yield of up to 18 percent between 2015 and 2020 alone.13 This trend is expected to continue as Mexico’s rainy season intensifies; 2020 was the driest since 2011, which in turn was one of the driest on record. In fact, 75 percent of Mexican soil is already considered too dry to cultivate crops. That is why some farmers in the Central Valley gave up agriculture entirely and sold off their lands.14
In particular, Mexico City—home to over 21 million inhabitants—saw unusually low rainfall in 2020-2021, and the local government is working urgently to overcome the shortages. Climate change will inevitably add to existing challenges of an over-exploited aquifer and under-investment in the water distribution system. Situated in a valley at an altitude of 2,240 meters, the city relies mostly on water pumped from an underground aquifer and reservoirs on the Cutzamala River, which provide 25 percent of the city’s water needs. Faced with historically low rains, city authorities reduced flows from the reservoirs in the second half of 2020 and rationed water supply in some neighborhoods. Researchers have estimated that natural water availability for the city could fall by between 10 and 17 percent by 2050 as temperatures rise—meaning the problem will only intensify.15
As in the case with Mexico’s Central Valley, climate change will increasingly become a source of major human population displacements throughout the region. In Mexico, the World Bank estimates that as many as 1.7 million people may migrate away from hotspots to urban areas with higher water and food availability, including Mexico City, where, as mentioned above, water scarcity is already an issue. This urbanization trend is at an early stage, and currently, a little more than half of the planet’s population lives in urban areas. The challenge is acute in the LAC region, which is the most urbanized region on earth with over 81% of its population now living in cities, according to the World Bank.16
These issues eventually cross borders. As temperatures rise, droughts and food insecurity will continue to drive rural communities in Mexico and Central America out of the countryside. Yet, as urban areas face increasing pressure on food and water, in addition to unemployment and insecurity issues that have historically forced emigration, people will increasingly seek solutions in the United States. According to the World Bank, the projected number of migrants arriving from Central America and Mexico is expected to rise from about 700,000 per year in 2025 to 1.5 million per year by 2050.
12 The Central Valley includes the states of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Jalisco and Mexico City.
13 Reuters calculation using statistics by the Agriculture Ministry in Mexico
16 https://data.worldbank.org/region/latin-america-and-caribbean
CLIMATE IMPACTS CASE STUDIES
Brazil’s Amazonian Rainforest: Shift from a Carbon Sink to a Net Carbon Emitter
Figure 2: Carbon Fluxes from World’s Three Major Rainforests
Source: Harris et.al., 2021.
As a case in point, the Brazilian Amazon -which covers about 60% of the total Amazonian Rainforest- released nearly 20% more CO2 into the atmosphere than it absorbed between 2010 and 2019, according to a report published in April 2021 in the Nature Climate Change journal. 18 This was something expected by scientists, but the speed of change took them by surprise, and, to make matters worse, they “don’t know at what point the changeover could become irreversible,” one of the report’s co-authors said. The findings point to deforestation, due both to fires and land-use change for cattle pasture, and deforestation increased nearly four-fold in 2019 compared with the two previous years—coinciding with the relaxation of environmental protection policies by Jair Bolsonaro’s administration.
The entire Amazonian region is, according to experts, still – but barely – a carbon sink, or possibly even carbon neutral, something poised to change as deforestation rates are increasing in the other Amazonian countries as well. This will pose an immense threat to society not only because we are losing our best ally in the fight against climate change, but also because the Brazilian Amazon alone holds about 10% of total global forest carbon. If this sequestered carbon were to be released back into the atmosphere, it would have unimaginable consequences.
A Nature article points to a bright spot, however, in that part of this reversal of the Amazonian carbon sink can be achieved relatively “easily” by natural regeneration of secondary forests on abandoned land. These are already re-growing on around 20% of deforested lands,19 and progress is just a matter of letting nature work its magic.
CLIMATE IMPACTS CASE STUDIES
Island Nations of the Caribbean: Threatening Sea-Level Rise
By Andre Charles – Research Officer, Sir Arthur Community College, St. Lucia
Current sea level rise in the Caribbean region averages 1.7mm/year, which is similar to average global sea level rise over the last century.20 This level is expected to increase over time, however, depending on the future temperature increase (as the two are positively related), as shown in Figure 3, which illustrates the projected sea level rise in different Caribbean islands at differing levels of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP, a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC).21 The Caribbean region will be subject to some of the highest future rates of sea level rise in the world due to its equatorial location.22
Figure 3: Sea Level Rise Projections for Caribbean Islands
Source: Climate Change Projections for the Caribbean and Implications for Air and Sea Ports UNCTAD National Workshop” Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation for Coastal Transport Infrastructure in Caribbean SIDS” Kingston, Jamaica May 30 – June 1, 2017 (https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/LNurse_UWI_JAMWorkshop_p02_en.pdf)
Rising sea levels have major implications for socio-economic development in Caribbean coastal communities. In the long term, it will result in issues such as the contamination of coastal groundwater sources by intrusion of saline water, thereby affecting water supply; increased effects of storm surges with greater wave activity; ecological effects on mangroves, corals, and beaches, resulting in the disruption of fish spawning cycles and turtle nesting areas. Sea level rise also increases coastal erosion, greatly affecting coastal infrastructure with add on costs for mitigation measures necessary for protecting structures. In sum, this would have a large impact on coastal settlements that can force displacement and adversely impact coastal development.
The Caribbean is the most tourism-dependent region in the world, with the sector accounting for approximately 14.8% of GDP, 13.4% of employment, 12.3% of foreign direct investment and 20% of total exports from the region to the rest of the world. The Caribbean is also the number one destination for the cruise ship industry, with over 30% of total cruise ship traffic.23 However, the region’s tourism product depends to a significant extent on the proverbial sun, sea and sand and, as such, the ecological effects of sea level rise will very directly impact this source of livelihood. For example, over 70% of the hotel infrastructure on the small island state of Barbados is located within 250 meters of the high water mark. The damage and loss of coastal infrastructure from sea level rise is a major risk factor for tourism revenue.
Figure 4 highlights the infrastructural risks associated with increased sea level as observed in Jamaica in 2004, where Hurricane Ivan caused storm surges and the resulting flooding of the low-lying, coastal Norman Manley highway that led to the inaccessibility of the city’s airport. This is just one example of many that mirrors a vast majority of Caribbean coastal infrastructure, which is already susceptible to the adverse effects of sea level rise.
Figure 4: Key Risk Factors for Port of Kingston and Norman Manley International Airport
Source: Climate Change Projections for the Caribbean and Implications for Air and Sea Ports UNCTAD National Workshop” Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation for Coastal Transport Infrastructure in Caribbean SIDS” Kingston, Jamaica May 30 – June 1, 2017 (https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/LNurse_UWI_JAMWorkshop_p02_en.pdf)
Furthermore, economic costs from impacts on tourism infrastructure will be high. For example, these are estimated to amount to between 1.3 and 4.8 billion USD by 2080 in Trinidad and Tobago alone, principally consisting of costs associated with rebuilding resorts. In Barbados, reduced property values due to beach and amenities loss are estimated at between 850 and 860 million USD annually by 2080. An estimate of necessary coastal erosion protection infrastructure for 19 major Caribbean cities, which includes approximately 300 km of levees, were valued at 1.2 billion USD, with maintenance costs of 111 million USD annually.24
Finally, the costs and impacts for coastal communities will be widespread. Population displacement in Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, and Jamaica are expected to be particularly high. The projected cost of population displacement in Haiti is estimated at between 1.8 and 4.3 billion USD in 2050. Similarly, agricultural land loss and land restrictions due to sea level rise are estimated at approximately 700 million USD by mid-century.25 This will leave whole populations without livelihoods, without a home, and at high risk of displacement. This could lead to potential emigration patterns, on a hitherto unprecedented scale.
20 https://www.mona.uwi.edu/physics/sites/default/files/physics/uploads/10_CCAndSea%20Level%20Rise.pdf
21 https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/LNurse_UWI_JAMWorkshop_p02_en.pdf
22 https://www.uncclearn.org/wp-content/uploads/library/undp88.pdf
23 Keith Nurse and Danielle Edwards, Climate Impact and Action: The Travel and Tourism Industry in the Caribbean and Small Island Developing States, Sustainable Futures Policy Brief, Issue 3, January 2019.
24 https://www.mona.uwi.edu/physics/sites/default/files/physics/uploads/10_CCAndSea%20Level%20Rise.pdf
25 https://www.uncclearn.org/wp-content/uploads/library/undp88.pdf
About the Author
Tania Miranda
Tania Miranda is the Director of Policy & Stakeholder Engagement for the Institute of the Americas’ Environment & Climate Change Program. She has over 6 years of experience with multiple Mexican government agencies at the federal level, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ProMexico, and the Mexican Embassy in Washington D.C. Prior to the Institute, Tania worked as an Investment and Economic Analyst at the Consulate of Mexico in New York, focusing on the promotion of the U.S. – Mexico – Canada Trade Agreement as well as energy, infrastructure, and tourism-related projects. She also has experience working as an energy liaison for the Kuwaiti government in Mexico. Tania studied a Bachelor of Arts in Economics with a Minor in International Relations at the University of Southern California, where she graduated Magna Cum Laude, and a Master’s of Science in Energy Policy & Climate from the Johns Hopkins University. She has published an array of research and opinion pieces on the energy sector, and co-authored a published book titled We Are North America.
About the Environment & Climate Change Program
This initiative strives to catalyze climate leadership amongst the private sector and sub-national governments in Latin America, to promote sustainable growth, tackle climate change and minimize environmental impacts in the region.
About the Institute of the Americas